Abiotic and Biotic Factors from the Past as Predictors of Alien Bird Richness and Temporal Beta-Diversity

The challenge of predicting the distribution alien species has long been a focus invasion ecology. Herein, we assessed biotic and abiotic factors from 1980s as potential predictors bird patterns 20 years later in state New York. To assess ability each factor to predict future patterns, analysed influence (native taxonomic, functional phylogenetic diversity, human population density) (climate land use) on observed richness 2000s temporal change composition communities between using both single-predictor multivariate models. Alien was reliable predictor beta-diversity 2000s. Among factors, maximum temperature agricultural land-uses constituted sufficient better than native factors. performance models generally weaker beta-diversity; however, past again outperformed other Predictions management decisions should warm areas, well areas with an already high number established species.